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Old 29-12-2021, 13:46   #11
Malcolm Tucker
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Originally Posted by Stagflation View Post
Omicron = pandemic over

Data out of SA looks like it to be an extremely mild albeit highly infectious variant, meaning even vaccine refusniks like me will get it and develop resistance to the other variants.
In all seriousness and probably for first time since March 2020, I agree with you.

Vaccines + milder but dominant strain means it's probably over. It's still going to be a dangerous infection for some, but the hospitalisation and death rates now shows its mortality is finally comparable to typical strain of seasonal influenza. I get why there was hesitation to just go with a tiny sample from SA hospitals alone, but it's multiple countries including ours now that show a huge drop off between infection and death. I don't fully agree Omicron will mean you'll handle Delta any better, you'd be forgiven for assuming it would, but my understanding is the jury is out on that as there is data suggesting the sheer number of mutations means cross-immunity isn't that good.

The wider issue now is how the test/isolation system is clearly no longer fit for purpose. It transmits far too quickly for PCR based test and trace to be of any functional use. It was struggling against increased speed under Alpha and then Delta, but it's getting absolutely owned now even with its record capacity. The doubling time means they will forever be several people behind the chain, so they either need to radically overhaul how it's done, costing billions more, or tbh, just scrap it. It's too mild an infection now to warrant that kind of operation.

The isolation is also looking like more of a threat to NHS resource than the virus itself now, having so many staff stuck at home when they're needed in wards etc is a major problem. Can't really do much about them isolating if they have it. You're then bringing the virus to the exact type of people who it's still a danger to. So I don't see a way around that, if anything is going to trigger the government to restrict stuff now, it'll be sheer lack of staff to treat anybody.
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Last edited by Malcolm Tucker; 29-12-2021 at 14:11.
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