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Old 28-05-2021, 01:16   #21
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Kane is fed up but 3 years on his contract so as much wanking as the pundits are doing about him going to City etc, it's hard to see a deal working. Levy will want 150m+, and as good as Kane is that's a lot to put on one player with ankles made of biscuits, it'd be fucking lol if someone new got him for 175m and match day 1 he's stretchered off for the rest of the season. Man City would rather spread 175m on 3-4 players, or if you are going to drop it on one man, why not Haaland who's 8 years younger than Kane, so much more mileage there.

He says he had verbal agreement he can go any time, yeah right. He just wants decent players around him. I think his preference is to stay, but he has to kick up a fuss to get things moving. The fact he's talking to Gary Neville on the golf course, making headlines etc, but hasn't actually put in a proper transfer request shows you he respects the reality of his contract and unaffordable fee, but needs to turn up the heat a bit to get Levy to do anything.

They're not *that* far off, 2nd/3rd in the league a few years ago, UCL final, EFL final. They just need that last little push, recall their loan players for one thing. Jose put out Skipp and Foyth to "get experience" and they've gone off and won trophies with other teams while Spurs 1st team is getting crumbs with the new Europa QwikFit League spots.
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Old 28-05-2021, 20:06   #22
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Yeah, City and Chelsea can probably go for more sensible options. Kane would be desperation from United (and desperation from him wanting out)… but like you say the roadblock is the money Levy would want and it’s not like Kane can threaten to sit out a year and go on a free.

Spurs can stay competitive for top four with Kane but City and Liverpool are clearly out ahead. Obvs Liverpool had a shit year but I think it’s reasonable to say they should bounce back when not having to play fifth choice CBs etc. Can see them both getting a ridiculous number of points next year.

Wonder if Pogba will fuck off .
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Old 29-05-2021, 19:01   #23
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Champions League Final

The big one, biggest prize in club football.

City are obviously the bookies favourites and for good reason, they have the better team and on their day they're pretty much unplayable. They did an absolute masterclass over PSG in the semi, not once but twice, showing just how much they want this. Premier league, EFL, FA Cup all great, but this one has eluded them. They should, in theory, leave it all out there tonight. If you look at the City line-up, Pep is fucking going for it, it's absolutely all out attack.

Chelsea have been rebooted under Tuchel, with a much more robust defence and overall better team discipline than anything they had under Lampard. It looked like their season was going nowhere despite spending around 200 million. Tuchel put them back into contention as a serious team to watch but they still have their moments, a slip-up against Villa on the final day nearly cost them top 4 and conceding 5 to West Brom is another example of how easily they can lose their composure. On the other hand, they seem to know how to handle Man City in particular, knocking them out of the FA Cup and beating them in the league.

Add all these things together and it's pretty much impossible to tip the result. It could easily be 5-0 Man City or 2-1 to Chelsea. Neither score line would surprise. So, like the Europa league final, avoid betting on the result. So what's on offer instead?

I'm going for a builder bet, Paddy Power are offering a free 5 quid one for new and existing customers and I imagine quite a few will tonight. The key is to not get too greedy with the odds. It's obviously no harm to stick a free bet on a 250/1 longshot but it simply won't come in while better thought out bets stand a better chance of landing and still netting you good money. Obviously this is far from a banker, wouldn't put real money on this one, but free bets on lower odds feel a little boring so it's still a bit of a punt.

Accumulator
Over 1.5 Goals - Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Corners - Home Total Corners 3.5
Phil Foden - Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target
Kai Havertz - Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target
Riyad Mahrez - Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target
Kevin De Bruyne - Anytime Assist
Riyad Mahrez - Anytime Goalscorer

5 quid free bet returns over 100 quid if it lands.
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Old 07-06-2021, 18:26   #24
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DA EUROS

England to win?
England are favourites but the value is not there. They are well backed every tournament and this pushes their price down. Remember odds do not correlate with probability.

There is some merit to believing it's coming home, the squad is stacked, lots of our fixtures are 'home' at Wembley and confidence is high, 2018 WC was farthest they'd progressed in a long time and they're on a good run of wins in general. As I've said before, other teams are probably scared of our squad, but they're not scared of Gareth Safegate, who despite being urged to take the brakes off this year, will likely revert to type and play 6 at the back when the first real opposition turns up. Hopeful on being proven wrong but certainly not a good bet, save your money.

Spain to win
World champions France are probably the "real" favourites but I think they have a similar problem to England, a squad full of individual talent but not clicking as you'd expect at the moment. Early days of course, but they're in the group of death and an upset in just one of their group games could doom them. They'll be hoping Germany end up as shit as rumoured this year otherwise it's a three-way scrap between those two and Portugal.

So I'm tipping Spain, taking 0 Real Madrid players on the squad is a bold call but probably correct. Enrique is going by form and potential instead of just names. He does have some serious names in the squad anyway of course, which doesn't hurt. They're arguably in the easiest group as well, which should leave his side as one of the freshest by the knockouts. At 8/1 I think they're great value.

Harry Kane golden boot
Lukaki is also a good bet, with him popping up on the scoresheet frequently. Both him and Kane are penalty takers too, but something about England under Southgate means we get shit loads of penalties. We got two alone in the friendly this week. Grealish and Kane both draw fouls and with Kane being one of the most reliable penalty takers in the world I can see them being a penalty goal conversion machine and repeating his WC performance and edge it past Lukaku.

The other contenders aren't that appealing:

Lewandowski, scoring for Bayern and scoring for Poland are just worlds apart. He simply won't get the service, nor be in the tournament long enough to be in contention.

Mbappe is a serious talent but France often have a tug of war on who takes penalties, with Griezman, Benzema and even Pogba in the mix. I can see Mbappe losing a few goals to others whereas the only circumstance Kane won't be taking one is if he's not on the pitch. Same goes for open play, France's goals are unlikely to accumulate under one player, they could very well be the highest scoring team, but it'll be spread around a lot more than it will be for England.

Penaldo. Can never fully rule him out, but he's just not in form lately and seems a little run down. Got to remember he's 37 soon so that's hardly a criticism now, but I think his best days are behind him.

Bale. A sure starter for Wales and his goal:appearance ratio in premier league is actually 1st, which is an overlooked stat and makes him a dark horse, if only Wales could remain in the competition long enough for him to make a mark.

Werner. He will be on main scoring duty for Germany now that Muller is getting a little long in the tooth but he's had an appalling season for Chelsea in terms of goals, with some defensive midfielders with better goal/appearance ratios than him. One might think being in a German shirt will be different, but he recently snatched defeat from the jaws of victory for his national team too, missing absolute sitters, showing the Werner curse is not a Chelsea thing.

So I'd back Kane, 6/1 is good value. Especially if England reach at least the semis which most are expecting.
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Last edited by Malcolm Tucker; 07-06-2021 at 18:44.
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Old 07-06-2021, 18:29   #25
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More specifics match day bets to come
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Old 08-06-2021, 23:39   #26
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England will get spanked by Croatia in the opening game because they are shit. Harry Kane will limp off with another ankle injury and then not play another game so as to not jeopardise his 150 million move to Utd. Foden will get caught wanking southgate off in the showers..............
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Old 15-06-2021, 16:24   #27
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Right time to get stuck in.

Wolves vs Hungary

It's the opening game for group of death and pressure is immediately on, with France vs Germany coming up later this game is a must not lose for Portugal. Hungary is set to the whipping boy of the group and for good reason. They reached qualification via playoffs against minnows and their main man is injured. Obviously anything can happen but hard to see beyond a Portugal win here. Look at their line up, Jota, Ronaldo ,Silva, Fenandes, Dias. Hungary have a tough evening ahead.

CR7 is playing centre forward so I think he will actually be dropping back a bit to have chances outside the box, and letting Jota and Silva do runs in on the flanks.

I suggest going for a Portugal win, over 1.5 goals and Jota to have 1+ shots on target. He's a vicious little fucker for getting shots away, Wolves are such a weaker team for losing him but at least he's basically back with them for the summer.
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Old 15-06-2021, 17:07   #28
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Jota shot on target done already, 4 minutes in.
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Old 15-06-2021, 18:53   #29
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Boom all 3 in, if you combined for a treble you should have got odds of about 2.4.

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Old 15-06-2021, 19:42   #30
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France vs Germany

Been looking at this one for a few minutes now and it's hard to tip. France have the better team IMO, but they've underperformed in the run up. A little like England do when you look at results compared to lineups, but I think they have far more to give than us and they could go up several gears easily tonight.

Germany aren't the giants they once were but shouldn't be underestimated, in fact their priced as favourites now since the lineups came out, albeit very narrowly. It could be because main striker Timo Werner has been dropped to the bench and Gnabry, Muller and Havertz are the front 3 which seems far more potent than Timmy Mallet up there by himself. Being at home won't hurt either.

It could go either way, a lot of activity on a low scoring draw but now Portugal have taken a lead with 3 goals on the board so both these pair will be acutely aware that Portugal will be hoping they draw, both will want to push for the win, so the game should open up. Not very confident on a result or goal numbers though.

Instead, looking at the formations I think Rudiger is going to be under the kosh from Mpabbe and Griezeman and will have to concede a few tactical fouls as the night goes on. He's good value at 5.0 for picking up a yellow. so I'm keeping it simple on a single for him to be carded.
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Last edited by Malcolm Tucker; 15-06-2021 at 19:45.
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