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Malcolm Tucker
14-07-2020, 11:44
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-survivors-can-suffer-damage-to-almost-every-major-organ-12027749

ChemicalKicks
14-07-2020, 12:49
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-survivors-can-suffer-damage-to-almost-every-major-organ-12027749

I listened to a podcast a few weeks ago about CV and the range of affects it can have, how it works and the damage it can cause. It's scary.

We're getting it easy right now, coming I to winter later and I think we'll see some real damage. Not like summer was ever known as peak flu season.

Stagflation
14-07-2020, 13:51
Boost your immune system NOW :ddsniggerjig:

ChemicalKicks
14-07-2020, 16:17
No heard immunity either apparently.

Malcolm Tucker
16-07-2020, 09:52
No heard immunity either apparently.

Which means any vaccine will need to be adapted and given frequently as a booster to provide immunity. Otherwise people are going to keep catching it, in the same way they still catch a cold most years. :dolefrog:

Chuckles
16-07-2020, 14:17
Which means any vaccine will need to be adapted and given frequently as a booster to provide immunity. Otherwise people are going to keep catching it, in the same way they still catch a cold most years. :dolefrog:

Why isn't that the case for stuff you can be vaccinated against though? I thought if you got an MMR jab, you wouldn't then get inflected by those things.

ChemicalKicks
16-07-2020, 14:21
Why isn't that the case for stuff you can be vaccinated against though? I thought if you got an MMR jab, you wouldn't then get inflected by those things.

I think it's to do with the mutation rate of the specific virus.

Malcolm Tucker
16-07-2020, 14:35
Why isn't that the case for stuff you can be vaccinated against though? I thought if you got an MMR jab, you wouldn't then get inflected by those things.

It's something to do with the way coronaviruses behave, it's why there's no vaccine to the common cold or some other viruses we've had decades to study such as HIV. They mutate, like all viruses, but there's something else about them which I can't remember/understand.

The optimism lies in that the common cold doesn't crash world economies so maybe the motivation into a vaccine for it has never been quite there, although saying that you'd think drug companies would absolutely love a common cold cure to sell so maybe it really is fucking difficult to immunise for. :dolefrog:

natalie
16-07-2020, 15:46
Why isn't that the case for stuff you can be vaccinated against though? I thought if you got an MMR jab, you wouldn't then get inflected by those things.

The old MMR given when people my age were kids doesn’t last forever. That’s why mumps is rife in universities because it’s the age when the vaccines have lost their effectiveness

Oswald
17-07-2020, 00:45
i hope the stock market tanks again

Moses
17-07-2020, 09:27
i hope the stock market tanks again

Hope it happens just after a forthcoming inheritance comes through so I can max out dat stocks and shares ISA.

Frank Castle
18-07-2020, 20:57
lol covid retards soaking up the MSM bullshit :rofl:

Stagflation
20-07-2020, 16:02
Boost your immune system NOW :ddsniggerjig:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839

A coronavirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford appears safe and triggers an immune response.

Trials involving 1,077 people showed the injection led to them making antibodies and T-cells that can fight coronavirus.

The findings are hugely promising, but it is still too soon to know if this is enough to offer protection and larger trials are under way.

The UK has already ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine.

:thumbs:

Malcolm Tucker
20-07-2020, 17:57
:wank:

Oswald
20-07-2020, 22:28
i wont be taking it

Malcolm Tucker
20-07-2020, 22:38
I don't think you can get any more autistic

Stagflation
21-07-2020, 10:51
I have faith in my own immune response TBH.

Malcolm Tucker
21-07-2020, 11:02
Yeah but even if I knew 100% that I'd have barely a sniff of any symptoms from it personally, I'd still get the vaccine.

Without a vaccination it will still use my body incubate and spread to others. With a vaccination it is virtually impossible for the virus to establish itself in your body and you will not propagate it. This is how they work, a certain % uptake is needed and if we all take the attitude of 'not my problem, I don't need it' then the % will be low and the virus will persist.

So it's about being a good citizen and doing your bit, helping form the wall of immunisation and giving it nowhere to go, particularly important for those who cannot be immunised.

So for me, this is where patriotism/citizenship etc becomes more than just flag waving and repeating slogans.

Stagflation
22-07-2020, 10:51
I don't take flu vaccines, I won't be taking this. I wear masks in shops and on public transport, it's not like I'm not altering my behaviour but being FORCED to take a vaccine that's not been fully tested? GTFO.

Malcolm Tucker
22-07-2020, 14:34
You're not being forced, it's not a mandatory vaccine and it is being fully tested.

It's true it is being developed at an unprecedented speed, but it's unprecedented times and the government has absolutely thrown money at it. Vaccination research during 'peacetime' does normally take longer, but do not mix up speed and haste. During the war they built spitfires pretty quickly didn't they? In fact, a lot of stuff had a surge of impetus behind it. Not out of recklessness but out of determination to achieve an objective quickly.

With the funding stages cleared in advance, essentially a blank cheque AND a massive political and scientific will to get it done, the same progress that could normally take X, might take Y. It doesn't mean it's been rushed, or 'skipped testing' as you allege.

Actually take a look at the chadox1 information from Oxford, and don't say you already have because you haven't, if you had you'd have known they're already testing over 50k people with it. Don't get me wrong, it's still early days, there's still a way to go before they can be confident it is going to work and it's safe long-term. The situation as I understand is; so far so good. It produces an immune response and side-effects are a minor headache and fever, typical of most vaccinations that trigger immune reactions, it's often regarded as a good indicator that it's worked. We still need to see if it'll create long-term protection, or if mutations in the virus nullify it quickly. That's the main concern I have, just like a colds, catching one strain and fighting it off doesn't appear to offer much protection from the next one. My fear is the vaccine will essentially boil down to an expensive placebo, but in terms of safety etc, honestly, do you think the people who actually do this stuff are muppets? That they need to consult a... whatever it is you do again, before rolling it out? Come on.

Not everything is a conspiracy. The internet is great, but ffs, for vaccinations it hasn't half damaged the reputation and resulted in hostility towards a scientific endeavour that saves millions.

ChemicalKicks
22-07-2020, 20:07
^this guy right here :)

dimle
24-07-2020, 19:35
I've signed up for the vaccine trials

ChemicalKicks
24-07-2020, 20:09
Fair play to you :) Was it something you were offered or did you have to go look for it?

Northerner
26-07-2020, 19:55
I've signed up for the vaccine trials

https://twitter.com/VICEUK/status/1287002157141696513?s=19

Good luck.

Malcolm Tucker
26-07-2020, 20:55
:hehe:

Frank Castle
28-07-2020, 20:34
LOL COVID RETARDS ITT

Stagflation
03-09-2020, 13:45
P0y6M-N8wOE

Stagflation
03-09-2020, 13:46
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgTKdH_XYAsxs-4?format=jpg&name=900x900

It's been over hyped. :yes:

ChemicalKicks
03-09-2020, 16:58
Dude maybe I'm really bad at searching but I couldn't find the original study, can you?

Malcolm Tucker
03-09-2020, 20:42
I think it's wiped out quite a few vulnerable people and scared the rest of them into hiding. As things have re-opened it's mostly younger people getting it now, but it's not a sustainable solution to just enclave society into old and young. How will Christmas work? Nan left on her own all holiday? :chin:

Anyway, none of it shows it was over hyped, it was always said that young and fit people were unlikely to die from it and it would retreat in the summer. Triumphalism about it being over/load of rubbish etc could look really stupid in another 4-6 months.

ChemicalKicks
04-09-2020, 09:27
Mortality is only one aspects, young and old are being left with other complications as a result of getting CV

Stagflation
04-09-2020, 10:27
Dude maybe I'm really bad at searching but I couldn't find the original study, can you?

Yes: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123489v1

Malcolm Tucker
04-09-2020, 10:51
I don't disagree with the numbers tbh, 0.7% mortality rate isn't a revelation, it's pretty much what they've been going on. Flu is like <0.1% so it is indeed deadlier and not comparable to just treat them the same.

It means if we let it run through the population unchecked we'd see about 500k die from it directly, but an overwhelmed NHS would also result in other preventable deaths unrelated to covid.

We won't be able to just throw open society and declare it over until we either develop a vaccine/treatment programme that brings the mortality rate down to flu like levels and we have what you could call an acceptable level of deaths from the very weak and old, or it naturally mutates to be less severe and ultimately circulates with as much danger and virulence as a cold.

Then like CK says, that 99.99% bracket is just outright deaths, the worst possible outcome to contracting it, there is the other issue of post-covid complications of people comfortable inside that 99.99 bracket who survive but don't necessarily "recover"

Stagflation
04-09-2020, 11:15
It isn't 0.7% mortality rate for the general population, it's 0.04% if you have no pre-existing conditions.

Malcolm Tucker
04-09-2020, 12:53
The general public contain those with pre-existing conditions though.

US say their mortality rate is 0.7-0.9% too. It's low in absolute terms, but relative to flu it's not. I know people will try to be optimistic and see the numbers in favourable ways but sadly the coffins prove it.

In whole of 2019, 34k people died of flu in the US.
In just over half the time, 180k have died of sars-cov2

If the mortality rate was even in the same sort of ballpark as the flu those numbers simply wouldn't be so far apart. It's to the point we don't even have to give it another 5 months to know which is deadlier. As that bald Witty guy pointed out as well, influzenza stats obviously include the winter season, which are the bulk of it. We've not had a winter with this yet.

bru_km
04-09-2020, 13:35
https://5bbc.org/sites/default/files/styles/article_image/public/winter.jpg?itok=XN8se9EV

Moses
04-09-2020, 14:57
It isn't 0.7% mortality rate for the general population, it's 0.04% if you have no pre-existing conditions.

Just a shame a massive chunk of western society is morbidly obese and so vast swathes of people have pre-existing/complicating conditions.

ChemicalKicks
04-09-2020, 16:28
Yes: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123489v1

Thanks for linking, I had actually found that before I posted last but I wasn't sure. Looking at the report, I can't see the actual figures referenced in the screenshot above. Do you know where they're shown?

Stagflation
04-09-2020, 19:03
I think those numbers are generated from the data on page 4, but from page 3:We find the cIFR is an increasing and highly non-linear function of both age and comor-
bidity (Figure 1). For those without a comorbidity, the cIFR is effectively zero and flat up to
the age of 50, and then increases roughly twenty-fold between 50-59 and 70-79 (from 0.01%
to 0.17% for women and from 0.02% to 0.48% for men). With a comorbidity, the pattern
is similar, but because the cIFR is already higher at younger ages, the age-gradient is less
steep, roughly doubling the cIFR for each decade above age 50. The difference in the cIFR
between patients with and without comorbidities is large but declines rapidly with age: a
30-39 year old is roughly 150 times more likely to die from COVID-19 if they have at least
one comorbidity; at age 70 this ratio has decreased to roughly 10.

Stagflation
04-09-2020, 19:07
0.01% chances of death if <50 and no comorbidity. The question should be how best we shelter those vulnerable and arguably how best to boost immunity and target reversible lifestyle comorbidity like obesity and diabetes. Severe lockdowns are such an over reaction to the risks to the healthy majority.

Malcolm Tucker
04-09-2020, 19:41
You're not going to be able to say to people, you're allowed out to the pubs and into the offices etc if you don't have diabetes, not overweight, not got asthma or you're under 50. It's completely unenforceable. A lockdown for everyone is a blunt instrument but it was actually possible to do.

ChemicalKicks
05-09-2020, 08:47
Thanks for being so helpful to my dumb ass Stag.

I am not looking forward to this winter one bit. Has anyone read about after effects of CV, I can't find it now but apparently it can leave last effects on the heart and lungs, even of young and apparently healthy people.

Chuckles
05-09-2020, 13:44
You are right Stag that if you are healthy and not in old age, the chances of dying are very low. The problem is when you take a percentage of <1% and apply it to the population, it still amounts to a lot of people. We were predicting 500k deaths without lockdown.

Northerner
05-09-2020, 18:54
Thanks for being so helpful to my dumb ass Stag.

I am not looking forward to this winter one bit. Has anyone read about after effects of CV, I can't find it now but apparently it can leave last effects on the heart and lungs, even of young and apparently healthy people.

There are loads of conflicting views but I suspect it will depend on age and fitness. Another is symptom is enlarged testicles in men (excluding trans) and a rash.

In reality there is no definitive "symptoms" list as different people seem to have different symptoms.

Eat healthy, take your vitamins, extra zinc and Vitamin C, exercise and you should be ok. :thumbs:

ChemicalKicks
05-09-2020, 20:24
There are loads of conflicting views but I suspect it will depend on age and fitness. Another is symptom is enlarged testicles in men (excluding trans) and a rash.

In reality there is no definitive "symptoms" list as different people seem to have different symptoms.

Eat healthy, take your vitamins, extra zinc and Vitamin C, exercise and you should be ok. :thumbs:

I've been listening to too much Joe Rogan, so a few weeks ago I ordered a good multivitamin and an extra vitamin d supplement. Apparently D is really beneficial to your immune system.

Stagflation
06-09-2020, 10:47
Get out in the sun at midday = win, also you need saturated fat in your diet to help.

ChemicalKicks
06-09-2020, 10:56
Get out in the sun at midday = win, also you need saturated fat in your diet to help.

There's no shortage of saturated fat in my diet lol

Stagflation
06-09-2020, 12:03
We were predicting 500k deaths without lockdown.

The whole 500k predicted deaths was absolute bollocks. The UK has done almost everything wrong regarding lockdowns and exposing the most vulnerable to the virus, yet still we've not even seen a fifth of that.

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was behind the model for that prediction and his track record is abysmal when it came to foot and mouth and swine flu.

Stagflation
06-09-2020, 12:07
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/richard-and-judy/1323175/coronavirus-lockdown-figures-covid-19-death-toll/amp

Richard Madeley agrees with me. :loool:

Chuckles
06-09-2020, 12:13
The whole 500k predicted deaths was absolute bollocks. The UK has done almost everything wrong regarding lockdowns and exposing the most vulnerable to the virus, yet still we've not even seen a fifth of that.

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was behind the model for that prediction and his track record is abysmal when it came to foot and mouth and swine flu.

It's based on a <1% mortality rate on the assumption that pretty much everyone would catch it, which is reasonable given how infectious it is.

Stagflation
06-09-2020, 13:40
Except the mortality rate is an order of magnitude less than 0.1 let alone 1 percent.

Stagflation
06-09-2020, 13:48
Given how late the UK lockdown and joke lack of distancing the UK has only had about 50k deaths from the virus. It's clearly not as deadly as modelled in the scare mongering epidemiologists model.

Plus there were very few flu deaths the last few years which meant there was a larger could cohort of the population vulnerable which has made the virus seem worse, let alone the incompetent and arguably criminal act of sending positive elderely patients from hospital back into crowded nursing homes. An almost genocidal act of killing the elderely, a creative way of helping the pension black hole anyway...

Chuckles
06-09-2020, 14:10
Except the mortality rate is an order of magnitude less than 0.1 let alone 1 percent.

Across the world it's 1.7%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I think the uk is around 0.7%.

Malcolm Tucker
07-09-2020, 18:33
Except the mortality rate is an order of magnitude less than 0.1 let alone 1 percent.

No it isn't, your own link earlier from Sweden puts it at 0.7% average across all ages. The US concur with the same figure.

Influenza has a mortality rate of less than 0.1 and you're completely ignoring the fact we can now say with certainty influenza kills/can kill far less. The US proves this beyond doubt due to them slipping on their lockdown and accruing nearly 200k deaths so far this year. In 2019 flu killed less than a quarter of that over there. How do you honestly explain such a vast difference in dead bodies? The only way you could possibly still be right about this is if the covid death toll is fake.

Stagflation
08-09-2020, 14:06
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhO-TUCWoAAKexr?format=jpg&name=large

More numbers albeit just from Geneva.

Stagflation
08-09-2020, 14:26
No it isn't, your own link earlier from Sweden puts it at 0.7% average across all ages. The US concur with the same figure.

Influenza has a mortality rate of less than 0.1 and you're completely ignoring the fact we can now say with certainty influenza kills/can kill far less. The US proves this beyond doubt due to them slipping on their lockdown and accruing nearly 200k deaths so far this year. In 2019 flu killed less than a quarter of that over there. How do you honestly explain such a vast difference in dead bodies? The only way you could possibly still be right about this is if the covid death toll is fake.

I'm not saying iTs JuSt FlU, I'm saying it's not as bad as the end is nigh virus where we need to lockdown the entire world.

Malcolm Tucker
08-09-2020, 15:27
Well you keep incorrectly attributing flu's mortality rate to it ffs

Chuckles
08-09-2020, 17:38
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhO-TUCWoAAKexr?format=jpg&name=large

More numbers albeit just from Geneva.

That's pretty much inline with what we've said then. 0.64% death rate on average.

Oswald
08-09-2020, 20:25
i cant believe the idiots in western governments are actually going to lock down again

Stagflation
08-09-2020, 20:54
fOlLoW tHe ScIEnCe

Malcolm Tucker
08-09-2020, 21:03
They won't do a national one again unless hospitalisations are taking off everywhere, if cases are increasing but it's just in the young they'll try and keep it to local restrictions here and there.

The problem, is this government is just outright incompetent. The ability to keep things open in as many places as the country as possible relies on a proper track, trace and testing system and it's been a shambles. They've lurched from one fuck up to the next, been tin-eared about what's going wrong, refused to acknowledge the developing problems until it's too late and then just gaslight us when they happen that they were unforeseen by us all, or as we're seeing the shift now, it's our fault the virus is coming back.

What should alarm Brexiters really is that it's the same morons looking after that, they're not just suddenly going to handle that properly for you. They're going to absolutely balls it up and blame us all for that too. Brexit and a pandemic are massive challenges on their own even for a very capable government to handle. These muppets are trying to sort out both at the same time, they're just not up to it.

Northerner
09-09-2020, 07:49
They won't do a national one again unless hospitalisations are taking off everywhere, if cases are increasing but it's just in the young they'll try and keep it to local restrictions here and there.

The problem, is this government is just outright incompetent. The ability to keep things open in as many places as the country as possible relies on a proper track, trace and testing system and it's been a shambles. They've lurched from one fuck up to the next, been tin-eared about what's going wrong, refused to acknowledge the developing problems until it's too late and then just gaslight us when they happen that they were unforeseen by us all, or as we're seeing the shift now, it's our fault the virus is coming back.

What should alarm Brexiters really is that it's the same morons looking after that, they're not just suddenly going to handle that properly for you. They're going to absolutely balls it up and blame us all for that too. Brexit and a pandemic are massive challenges on their own even for a very capable government to handle. These muppets are trying to sort out both at the same time, they're just not up to it.

Yes Brexit that's the reason ....sigh, haven't you grown up yet?

The reason track and trace worked in countries like South Korea was because the government had access to people's Bank accounts, facial recognition, gps location and used this data to track and warn people via an app. They made this compulsory, and there are also less people. Like China these are countries which have embraced contactless payment via QR codes with apps such as Alibaba or WeChat. The West hasn't adopted this approach.

The problem in the west and UK is that people like you are the first to start crying "human rights", "breach of my privacy"....etc as soon as there is any mention of tracking or monitoring. If the UK Government said they were going to access people's data without consent, then firms like Leigh Day and others would be straight into the courts to stop it and earn a big pay days and hinder the process.

Then you have the scale of tracking millions of people, some of who are against any system (to their benefit or not) is not an easy task or one which can simply be rolled out in a matter of months.

Additionally you have thousands of unregistered people who simply won't want to be tracked or traced.

You over trivialise the issue because you are not willing to help, rather criticise and hinder the process. You are prioritising your own political bias over halting the spread of this virus. To you it's about "getting one over on the Tories and Boris" This is why in the west it's not getting much better.

ChemicalKicks
09-09-2020, 09:26
To be fair I don't want the government knowing where I'm at as a matter of principle, they already know enough. Unfortunately a lot of people I asked about track and trace said they wouldn't download the app because of this, not realising that the government did a U-turn and used a decentralised solution.

Malcolm Tucker
09-09-2020, 09:27
Brexit's the reason for what? I'm just pointing out this is a shit government, and not because they're Tories but simply because they're shit. A lot of far better and talented Conservative politicians have been driven out and complete muppets have been elevated into ministerial roles they're simply not capable of. Basically the cabinet was filled with those who swore allegiance to Brexit, not whether they were the best person for their brief. When the pandemic hit it exposed that dramatically.

A David Cameron government would have handled this a hell of a lot better, put it that way.

When it comes to Brexit it again requires competence to deliver, yet the main priority sometimes is appeasement of the base. That's running out of road as the year goes on and I assure you, when they finally have to face reality and begin making very tough decisions on that too, the first opportunity they get they'll pass the blame.

As for track and trace, I dunno why you think I'd moan about tracking etc when my phone already does that already. Any sort of tech minded person is already aware of what smartphones are doing. The government have been advised, repeatedly, of ways they can balance privacy with efficacy. Yet, as is so common with this government, we somehow end up with the worst of both worlds. We've got a system that is not effective, and it's got people's personal details kept insecurely in all manner of formats across the country's venues.

I mean, did you miss the whole thing with the 'world beating app'? Boasting how good the app was and it'd be ready on 1st June. When the deadline arrived and reality kicked in, we got a load of waffle about how it's all Apple's fault.

The 31st December deadline will be different though. :hehe:

Oswald
09-09-2020, 09:52
YES! I AM A COVIDIST, AND WHOS MADE ME A COVIDIST?

Malcolm Tucker
09-09-2020, 09:54
To be fair I don't want the government knowing where I'm at as a matter of principle, they already know enough. Unfortunately a lot of people I asked about track and trace said they wouldn't download the app because of this, not realising that the government did a U-turn and used a decentralised solution.

True, but this is where leadership and trust is vital. I don't like being told I can't leave my house whenever I want as a matter of principle, or the police gaining the powers they have, but I understand why and I trust that it's temporary. A key tenet of leadership is taking the country with you on the decisions during a big crisis.

The issue has been they've steadily squandered that trust with so many, they had huge support from people at the start of this and slowly pissed it away. People stopped following them with the decisions. Demonstrating they preferred to keep Cummings than to prove that the rules are vital and for everyone was a big misstep.

Little things as well steadily undermine everything. With an app you need to tell people how it will work, why it's vital and what will happen to their data. They will want honesty. Instead Johnson has a habit of firing off deadlines and promises that appear to be made up on the spot. "We'll have this thing beat in 12 weeks" - said about 26 weeks ago. "We'll be back to normal by Christmas" - "The app is world beating" and so on. Every time these turn to dust, it damages the credibility of future deadlines and assurances. All of this is their own making.

Chuckles
09-09-2020, 10:00
Had a BBQ cancelled for a week Saturday because there would be 10 people, even though it's a big garden and everybody is sensible and has been socially distancing.

Meanwhile....

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2020-09-08/final-preparations-underway-as-doncasters-st-leger-festival-set-to-welcome-spectators-despite-criticism

So we could basically all go to the horse racing alongside 1000's of other people? WTF?

Oswald
09-09-2020, 10:02
Had a BBQ cancelled for a week Saturday because there would be 10 people, even though it's a big garden and everybody is sensible and has been socially distancing.

Meanwhile....

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2020-09-08/final-preparations-underway-as-doncasters-st-leger-festival-set-to-welcome-spectators-despite-criticism

So we could basically all go to the horse racing alongside 1000's of other people? WTF?sounds like you’re about to be red pilled :loool::thumbs::fastyes:

Malcolm Tucker
09-09-2020, 10:06
Had a BBQ cancelled for a week Saturday because there would be 10 people, even though it's a big garden and everybody is sensible and has been socially distancing.

Meanwhile....

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2020-09-08/final-preparations-underway-as-doncasters-st-leger-festival-set-to-welcome-spectators-despite-criticism

So we could basically all go to the horse racing alongside 1000's of other people? WTF?

Horse racing there called big storm coming. :hehe:

ChemicalKicks
09-09-2020, 10:41
Just to jump on the absolutely shit government bandwagon. I can just see big parallels between the US and UK. Why have both nations become so insular and blind, every step of they way we've (as a nation) shot ourselves in the foot while patting ourselves on the back. I have no trust in the devolved government of Northern Ireland and I have even less for Westminster, I don't feel represented one bit.

Stagflation
09-09-2020, 15:06
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhaczsIX0AIspZ-?format=png&name=900x900

Visage
10-09-2020, 08:04
So when young people get C19 they didnt need hospitalisation at that specific set of universities?

Amazing.

Malcolm Tucker
10-09-2020, 09:44
https://i.imgflip.com/4egddw.jpg

Oswald
10-09-2020, 21:36
Dragging it out to save face and instill fear imo
They are literally just throwing shit at a dartboard to pick random rules

Malcolm Tucker
13-09-2020, 17:49
0.01% chances of death if <50 and no comorbidity. The question should be how best we shelter those vulnerable and arguably how best to boost immunity and target reversible lifestyle comorbidity like obesity and diabetes. Severe lockdowns are such an over reaction to the risks to the healthy majority.

You're not going to be able to say to people, you're allowed out to the pubs and into the offices etc if you don't have diabetes, not overweight, not got asthma or you're under 50. It's completely unenforceable. A lockdown for everyone is a blunt instrument but it was actually possible to do.

Apparently they're going to try this if cases keep rising, a lockdown for those classed as 'vulnerable' - in a bid to avoid a blanket lockdown for all.

I still think the idea is flawed in practice, the first obvious question is what do you do if you're not vulnerable yourself but you live with someone who is? Surely you must lockdown as well for their benefit?

Secondly, how do you enforce it? Will fat old men be literally banned from pubs while younger, fitter people are allowed in? Asking for a friend*

*Chuckles.

Frank Castle
14-09-2020, 08:21
Lol I was correct all along :rofl:

I was right about brexit and this fake pandemic

LOL OWNED

Malcolm Tucker
14-09-2020, 20:15
:ffspant:

Frank Castle
14-09-2020, 22:20
Take the ownage mayte

You should be used to it now, it’s been a bad few years for the SJW’s

Visage
15-09-2020, 07:25
We've been proved right on Brexit and we've been proved right on C19. Why does that make it a bad few years?

Frank Castle
15-09-2020, 10:45
Lol let it go, stop torturing yourself

Frank Castle
15-09-2020, 11:52
Btw how many of you IT spastics have lost your jobs now ? How many of you are still furloughed? I bet your arses are twitching looool

Wait until brexit really kicks in as well, ya fucked mayte :hehe:

ChemicalKicks
15-09-2020, 12:16
Dunno about vis but us office workers and IT spastics haven't been getting furloughed. We've all been getting paid to 'work' from home :D

Malcolm Tucker
15-09-2020, 12:19
Busier than ever, not been furloughed. WFH so saving lots on transport and overpriced paninis

IT is doing really well, for obvious reasons, the risk is businesses that need that IT go under anyway due to corona.

It's hospitality workers who are in the shit tbh, anything that relies on lots of people physically entering your building is going to be fucked for ages.

Frank Castle
15-09-2020, 14:06
I physically entered your mum and fucked her for ages

ChemicalKicks
15-09-2020, 16:16
lol

Visage
16-09-2020, 07:50
Dunno about vis but us office workers and IT spastics haven't been getting furloughed. We've all been getting paid to 'work' from home :D

Yup. Between not commuting and not going out for lunch/after work beers im 1500 quid a month up. :head:

Frank Castle
16-09-2020, 10:34
Lol. Better save that to live off when u get made redundant end of next month :loool:

Oswald
16-09-2020, 12:43
Yup. Between not commuting and not going out for lunch/after work beers im 1500 quid a month up. :head:
https://i.warosu.org/data/ck/img/0103/22/1521597882582.png

Frank Castle
16-09-2020, 14:28
All you retards WFH ... you do realise your pathetic jobs can also be done from Mumbai

ChemicalKicks
16-09-2020, 15:10
All you retards WFH ... you do realise your pathetic jobs can also be done from Mumbai

Probably.

If I got made redundant I wouldn't complain, probably just go on the file for a while or try and get DLA for some mental condition lol

Frank Castle
16-09-2020, 15:21
*try* lol

Moses
16-09-2020, 16:06
All you retards WFH ... you do realise your pathetic jobs can also be done from Mumbai

Mine can’t because of a) time zone and b) the fact we work with UK citizen data. Not even allowed to take my work phone or laptop abroad.

ChemicalKicks
16-09-2020, 17:11
*try* lol

I've suppressed in the inner mental for a good while now :loool:

Frank Castle
17-09-2020, 09:33
I’m normal now

:shifty:

Stagflation
17-09-2020, 12:43
Apparently they're going to try this if cases keep rising, a lockdown for those classed as 'vulnerable' - in a bid to avoid a blanket lockdown for all.

I still think the idea is flawed in practice, the first obvious question is what do you do if you're not vulnerable yourself but you live with someone who is? Surely you must lockdown as well for their benefit?

Secondly, how do you enforce it? Will fat old men be literally banned from pubs while younger, fitter people are allowed in? Asking for a friend*

*Chuckles.

There is no perfect solution, but just because someone lives with their fat diabetic granddad shouldn't mean the whole country should come to a stand still.

Malcolm Tucker
17-09-2020, 13:05
You present it like it's necessary to 'avoid the whole country' coming to a standstill but I don't think we really know the numbers on this. It's not just the millions of people who are clinically vulnerable, it must also include those who live in the same house as them. It could be quite a lot of people affected depending on what types of people are sent letters. It's said to be a wider net than the previous 'shielding' group. One rumour is that it could be anyone over the age of 50, regardless of other co-morbidities, which is obviously a massive chunk of people affected when you consider how many people still live with their parents.

If only Tories had sorted out the housing crisis. :hehe:

You're right there's no perfect solution to this, not convinced there's even a 'good' solution to it. A pandemic was always said to be a really damaging problem that would always need a vaccine to ultimately solve, otherwise we are basically fucked. The way our economy and society has been built is incompatible with life under a pandemic.

Stagflation
17-09-2020, 15:16
Most people who get it are unsymptomatic, it's not even been proven you're contagious if you're unsymptomatic.

As for 'always going to need a vaccine', I'm unconvinced, the dreaded second wave is supposedly among us yet deaths are not really happening...

Chuckles
17-09-2020, 15:45
Most people who get it are unsymptomatic

Around 20%....

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/asymptomatic-coronavirus-found-in-up-to-20-per-cent-of-people/

Malcolm Tucker
17-09-2020, 16:37
the dreaded second wave is supposedly among us yet deaths are not really happening...

Jumping the gun a bit there, there's a lead time between a positive test and a death. Those dying today won't have contracted it in this recent surge, they'll have been in hospital for weeks and initially contracted it back in the quiet period.

Some people getting it in this wave will begin filtering into hospitals over the next few weeks, in theory.

The difference now is that we're more aware, the vulnerable are on red alert for it and will be really cautious. Those that do get hospitalised also stand a better chance due to some new treatments. So we should see fewer hospitalisations and of those, fewer deaths.

The media do gloss over this a bit and focus on cases which can be misleading, last time only people who were fucked with it were getting tested in hospital or on their death bed in care homes. Now testing is widespread, so I imagine cases will accelerate way beyond the previous peak of 5k a day. New hospitalisations is the one to watch.

Chuckles
17-09-2020, 17:24
There is evidence that the death rates are coming down even taking into account the lag and age groups who are getting it at the moment. At least in Germany....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ7vPxWC-3Y&t=1225s

Death rates aren't the only thing though. A lot of people (including young) are coming out with affects lasting months after the initial illness. We don't really know the long term affects as it stands.

Oswald
17-09-2020, 17:40
stop posting in this thead and post in my ones

Frank Castle
18-09-2020, 10:24
Imagine a virus so deadly you need a test to see if you have it

And 90 year old smokers are laughing it off

And at its worst there were 3k covid hospital patients

But you utter fucking suggestible spastics still can’t see thru this shit

:loool:

Frank Castle
18-09-2020, 10:26
A quick google shows 5000 hospital flu admissions in jan 2018

:rofl:

Frank Castle
18-09-2020, 10:28
But but but Matt hancock said so on the bbc news

K M8

Malcolm Tucker
18-09-2020, 10:29
are you wayne lineker?

Frank Castle
18-09-2020, 12:32
No I’m way more desirable to 20 something thots

Malcolm Tucker
19-09-2020, 18:18
Brexit's the reason for what? I'm just pointing out this is a shit government, and not because they're Tories but simply because they're shit. A lot of far better and talented Conservative politicians have been driven out and complete muppets have been elevated into ministerial roles they're simply not capable of. Basically the cabinet was filled with those who swore allegiance to Brexit, not whether they were the best person for their brief. When the pandemic hit it exposed that dramatically.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EiQsA-GXYAAoCRd?format=jpg&name=large

see what I mean? even the fucking TIMES can't deny it any more, unless you're going to say they're just being remoaners too :hehe:

the mail and telegraph is putting the boot in too, he could actually be gone by christmas

Oswald
19-09-2020, 18:33
Locktober

Moses
19-09-2020, 21:19
He obviously needs to fuck off, but who replaces him? Could be someone equally incompetent like Raab FFS.

A load of the competent Tories were purged before the last election, and now he just has believers/loyalists in his Cabinet rather than people who are competent... and that’s where people will naturally look for a successor.

Someone like Tugendhat could have a shout - it’s what he’s been gunning for/laying the groundwork for.

Malcolm Tucker
19-09-2020, 23:56
It'll be Gove, he's Murdoch's man and why the papers are laying this groundwork

Which might mean snap election May 2021 when Brexit is done and probably got a vaccine on the go

Normally I'd rule out elections when the party has a big majority but an 'unelected' prime minister for nearly 4 years might be a miscalculation, even though it's technically fine. Brown in his memoir book said he absolutely regretted not getting a fresh mandate when he took over from Blair. Soon as the next crisis hit the public just turn and are like 'we never asked for him to be PM anyway :mad:'

Frank Castle
20-09-2020, 10:06
Farage will fire Uk the brexit party and fuck shit up

Visage
20-09-2020, 11:03
Farage will fire Uk the brexit party and fuck shit up8th time lucky?

Frank Castle
20-09-2020, 14:07
Ofc

yourmum
22-09-2020, 15:06
It'll be Gove, he's Murdoch's man and why the papers are laying this groundwork

Which might mean snap election May 2021 when Brexit is done and probably got a vaccine on the go

Normally I'd rule out elections when the party has a big majority but an 'unelected' prime minister for nearly 4 years might be a miscalculation, even though it's technically fine. Brown in his memoir book said he absolutely regretted not getting a fresh mandate when he took over from Blair. Soon as the next crisis hit the public just turn and are like 'we never asked for him to be PM anyway :mad:'

those spineless tory MP's won't do shit. Cummings probably has so much shit on those nonce cunts they will do what ever he says, including Boris I Nonce Kids Johnson.

Johnson is here for the full term, get used to it.

Stagflation
23-09-2020, 13:35
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Infection Fatality Ratio

0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028

0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

So according to this data, it is just about as bad as the flu. :loool:

Oswald
23-09-2020, 14:26
:loool:
im almost ready to go postal :thumbs:

Frank Castle
23-09-2020, 14:27
EG RIGHT AGAIN

Malcolm Tucker
23-09-2020, 14:32
You keep going back and forth on this, one minute you admit you're not suggesting it's like the flu, the next you are again. Like I said before, you're either ignoring reality or must be concluding covid deaths are fake.

Flu deaths per year in the US:

2010–2011 37,000
2011–2012 12,000
2012–2013 43,000
2013–2014 38,000
2014–2015 51,000
2015–2016 23,000
2016–2017 38,000
2017–2018 61,000
2018–2019 34,000

So even for a particularly bad year for the flu, it killed 61,000 in 12 months. Covid has killed 200k in 9. So it's clearly worse than the flu.

And, again, the annualised deaths include the full flu season through the winter. Covid stats for a full year are yet to include that.

The US could be fucking up, but the mortality rate seems to bear out roughly the same across the world and it's always higher than the flu. Not saying it's the black death or anything either, but I don't understand this denial of it being a significant respiratory disease. Is it just the contrarian in you or something? Bit boring to agree with the consensus?

Malcolm Tucker
23-09-2020, 14:33
actually why am I bothering :lmao:

Oswald
23-09-2020, 14:34
they dont track flu deaths u tard, cos nobody gives a fuck about it and there isnt the potential to implement a new world order

Malcolm Tucker
23-09-2020, 14:50
they do give a fuck about it:

https://news.sky.com/story/oxford-university-l...viral-study-in-history-12079262 (https://news.sky.com/story/uncle-bens-new-name-announced-in-move-to-avoid-racial-stereotypes-12079262)

Frank Castle
23-09-2020, 16:17
Most of them are “with”
covid not of

Stagflation
23-09-2020, 17:20
You keep going back and forth on this, one minute you admit you're not suggesting it's like the flu, the next you are again. Like I said before, you're either ignoring reality or must be concluding covid deaths are fake.

Flu deaths per year in the US:

2010–2011 37,000
2011–2012 12,000
2012–2013 43,000
2013–2014 38,000
2014–2015 51,000
2015–2016 23,000
2016–2017 38,000
2017–2018 61,000
2018–2019 34,000

So even for a particularly bad year for the flu, it killed 61,000 in 12 months. Covid has killed 200k in 9. So it's clearly worse than the flu.

And, again, the annualised deaths include the full flu season through the winter. Covid stats for a full year are yet to include that.

The US could be fucking up, but the mortality rate seems to bear out roughly the same across the world and it's always higher than the flu. Not saying it's the black death or anything either, but I don't understand this denial of it being a significant respiratory disease. Is it just the contrarian in you or something? Bit boring to agree with the consensus?

At this moment there is huge hysteria about an increase in cases, I'm just pointing out numbers released by the US government. Maybe it's spreading more easily than flu as people haven't been exposed to if previously but I would bet that we don't see anything like the death toll as the first wave.

Malcolm Tucker
23-09-2020, 18:05
Yes, cases isn't the metric to watch this time around as we test everyone now not just hospital admissions.

The thing to watch is hospitalisations and the age groups, if those look to be trending into dangerous areas then there's no reason to believe we won't see the deaths spike again.

There has been a slight uptick in hospitalisations, and apparently cases in the over 70s are increasing. I hope you're right and it's nothing like the first wave but the less people care and ignore the advice and the worse the weather gets, it feels inevitable that it's going to be bad. We will see in 6 months I guess.

Frank Castle
23-09-2020, 19:46
How do you explain Sweden then

Malcolm Tucker
23-09-2020, 23:26
They've not fared as well as some people think, early on it seemed like they did but neighbouring countries like Norway and Denmark who did stricter measures have a lower death rate than them now.

Plus, nordic countries are far healthier than us.

Frank Castle
24-09-2020, 09:10
:rofl:

Is that the best you can do you retard

Malcolm Tucker
24-09-2020, 10:48
All it takes these days mate

Chuckles
24-09-2020, 11:58
How do you explain Sweden then

Woudl that be the Sweden who are now imposing a lockdown due to a big spike of Covid?

yourmum
24-09-2020, 15:02
they dont track flu deaths u tard, cos nobody gives a fuck about it and there isnt the potential to implement a new world order

actually you retarded fuck they do track flu deaths because those numbers are then used by pharma companies to sell more flu vaccines via insurance programmes in the US. It's money for old rope you dumb nonce cunt.

Stagflation
05-10-2020, 16:42
If you've ever had a common cold from a corona virus, you're pretty much immune from COVID apparently. :loool:

Stagflation
05-10-2020, 16:55
Also ROFL at the government using an excel spreadsheet to track the virus. :hehe:

Chuckles
05-10-2020, 20:30
If you've ever had a common cold from a corona virus, you're pretty much immune from COVID apparently. :loool:

SOUNDS PLAUSIBLE

Visage
05-10-2020, 21:22
If you've ever had a common cold from a corona virus, you're pretty much immune from COVID apparently. :loool:

'apparently' = someone claimed it on a website without evidence.

Malcolm Tucker
06-10-2020, 09:35
Nah he's sort of right but he's not telling you full story. If you've had a coronavirus infection before there's a reasonable chance your T cells will respond to this coronavirus and you'll get a mild infection. Reasonable chance, they don't know for sure because immunity can fade over time. People who recovered from SARS being the most interesting group because that is the closest link to this one.

However, you probably haven't had a coronavirus before. Coronaviruses are only responsible for a fraction of common colds, especially outside the eastern hemisphere, where it's the rhinovirus that's the most prevalent cause.

The last time this was looked at I think they concluded an absolute maximum of 15% of the global population, mostly focused in Asia, may have some kind of T-cell resistance to coronaviruses but with no way to identify or really do anything about it, it's safer to assume you are not one of these people.

Add it to the list:

"If you get plenty of sun or take vitamin D tablets you'll be fine"
"It's been circulating for ages, most of us have already had it by now"
etc

ChemicalKicks
06-10-2020, 10:20
Are you telling me my vitamin d ain't helpful?

Malcolm Tucker
06-10-2020, 11:28
Having a vitamin D deficiency makes you more susceptible to all infections. But so does a lack of other vitamins. People are popping them as though they will prevent covid because those who have died apparently had low vitamin D. But correlation isn't causation, I'd imagine elderly bed ridden people will have low vitamin D for obvious reasons, but that doesn't mean the level is what allowed covid to kill them. They'd have still died even with perfect levels of it tbh.

Nothing wrong with taking it if you need it, but it's pretty pointless taking it unless you've been clinically diagnosed with a deficiency. If your levels are already fine you're at best literally pissing it down the toilet, or at worst you're doing more harm than good with your kidneys.

ChemicalKicks
06-10-2020, 14:48
Thanks I appreciate you taking the time on your response. I've got a good multi and a separate d so I'll just keep taking them. Couldn't do any more harm than when I have a drink at the weekend lol

Malcolm Tucker
06-10-2020, 16:38
You're welcome, your Mum takes a lot of D as well I heard.

ChemicalKicks
06-10-2020, 23:52
Do you know her too?

Frank Castle
07-10-2020, 21:41
Lol Craig still stuck in march :loool:

Oswald
07-10-2020, 22:07
The entire covid response is to destroy cask ale pubs to spite farage for brexit
They hate cask ale and they want to destroy it

Moses
08-10-2020, 09:47
The entire covid response is to destroy cask ale pubs to spite farage for brexit
They hate cask ale and they want to destroy it

All the shit pubs selling it need to die. The ones which get flooded with commoners. We need them to be reborn as hipster paradises where poor people can't afford to drink.

Malcolm Tucker
08-10-2020, 09:57
Just riff raff. Everywhere.

Oswald
09-10-2020, 14:45
All the shit pubs selling it need to die. The ones which get flooded with commoners. We need them to be reborn as hipster paradises where poor people can't afford to drink.

COVID is a hoax and its a war on cask ale
im 100% certain

hipsters dont drink cask ale btw, its too white and traditional

Moses
09-10-2020, 14:51
Literally though. They're the ones fucking hospitality (obvs not just paupers, but anyone breaching social distancing etc).

All the nice sit-down restaurants with good social distancing etc are, I'd guess without any evidence, very much not the problem when it comes to transmission in 'hospitality'. All the shit pubs with people getting wasted are being grouped together with normal dining and fine dining.

Moses
09-10-2020, 14:52
Literally though. They're the ones fucking hospitality (obvs not just paupers, but anyone breaching social distancing etc).

All the nice sit-down restaurants with good social distancing etc are, I'd guess without any evidence, very much not the problem when it comes to transmission in 'hospitality'. All the shit pubs with people getting wasted are being grouped together with normal dining and fine dining.

Malcolm Tucker
09-10-2020, 18:35
I don't think anyone really knows, my gut feeling is it probably isn't the patrons half the time, every place I've been to so far felt like I'd have to be very unlucky to catch it off another customer. However if a young person is completely symptomless, comes into work and is touching glasses, plates and cutlery all day it's bound to spread it. You can't sanitise everything constantly. A lot of places use the face shields and not the masks which I think are next to useless as well, so they're basically getting their breath funnelled down onto the thing they're carrying. I always thought they were supposed to be for NHS workers to stop infected droplets spraying in their eyes.

The latest furlough thing shows the intent of what's coming as well, they're shutting pubs soon anyway, maybe even more stuff. Not quite another lockdown but it'll feel like it as unless you're a school kid or a key worker you're gonna be stuck at home again 99% of the time. :dolefrog:

Moses
09-10-2020, 19:39
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1314635944822214658?s=21

Government agrees with me and might differentiate between pubs/bars and proper restaurants.

Moses
09-10-2020, 19:44
I don't think anyone really knows, my gut feeling is it probably isn't the patrons half the time, every place I've been to so far felt like I'd have to be very unlucky to catch it off another customer. However if a young person is completely symptomless, comes into work and is touching glasses, plates and cutlery all day it's bound to spread it. You can't sanitise everything constantly. A lot of places use the face shields and not the masks which I think are next to useless as well, so they're basically getting their breath funnelled down onto the thing they're carrying. I always thought they were supposed to be for NHS workers to stop infected droplets spraying in their eyes.

The latest furlough thing shows the intent of what's coming as well, they're shutting pubs soon anyway, maybe even more stuff. Not quite another lockdown but it'll feel like it as unless you're a school kid or a key worker you're gonna be stuck at home again 99% of the time. :dolefrog:

Could be pretty shit. At the moment I can’t even have a friend round LOL. And even outside it can only be two households which is SHIT because my friends are all young professionals who are mainly living alone etc. (I’m in Scotland... dunno what the exact rules are down south).

Oswald
09-10-2020, 23:35
Literally though. They're the ones fucking hospitality (obvs not just paupers, but anyone breaching social distancing etc).

All the nice sit-down restaurants with good social distancing etc are, I'd guess without any evidence, very much not the problem when it comes to transmission in 'hospitality'. All the shit pubs with people getting wasted are being grouped together with normal dining and fine dining.
U do know that you dont have to get wasted to talk to people outside of your bubble?
Have u ever met a woman outside of your family?

Moses
10-10-2020, 03:49
U do know that you dont have to get wasted to talk to people outside of your bubble?
Have u ever met a woman outside of your family?

I’m Cornish so it’s all about dat inbreeding.

iam
15-10-2020, 14:27
Good thread

yourmum
15-10-2020, 14:58
I’m Cornish so it’s all about dat inbreeding.

is your sister also your mother ?

Stagflation
18-10-2020, 18:51
It isn't 0.7% mortality rate for the general population, it's 0.04% if you have no pre-existing conditions.

For people < 70 years old, the infection fatality rate of COVId-19 across 40 locations with available data ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% (median 0.05%); the corrected values were similar.
Source:https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

:thumbs:

ChemicalKicks
18-10-2020, 20:07
So give us some numbers, predicted total deaths in the UK

ChemicalKicks
18-10-2020, 20:09
So if everyone in the UK got CV19 we would see 3.3 million dead, I know thats assuming everyone gets it and that's not talking into account age and shit. Still seems like a lot, that number is based on 0.05 fatality rate

Visage
18-10-2020, 20:29
Its 0.05%, not 0.05, so 100x less.

But that's problematic because 33,000 deaths is less than we've actually had....And presumably nobody is suggesting that everyone in the UK has caught it....

Malcolm Tucker
18-10-2020, 20:31
For the entire population, including the older groups, the mortality rate is more like 0.7%.

Stag is taking just the under 75s for the mortality rate, which is going to give you a lower number but it's unrealistic because you can't just stop over 75s getting the virus so the numbers fit.

We already know that enclaving society into under and over 75 groups is just a fanciful idea. You can't just seal them all away, even the ones in nursing homes are looked after by predominantly young people, so you're basically saying all social workers must either live in the care homes or just bubble between it and their home, have no social life etc. Then there's the millions who live with or interact with over 75s outside of care homes, literally living with them etc.

If the virus spreads in the younger groups, it's only a matter of time until it goes into the old groups as well. It's not even a theory, it's fact, cases and hospitalisations are rising in all groups, not just <75s.

So 0.07% of 65 million is is 455k deaths. Assuming virtually everyone catches it. However there's loads of variables, the virus may struggle to spread if 70-80% of us have caught it and have antibodies, but if a large volume of people have it in a short space of time, you have to deal with the hospitalisations surging. The mortality rate may go up as resources run dry and people who would have survived the virus ordinarily with hospital treatment don't get it in time.

We can see if the current deaths are anywhere near on course for such a large death count, based on how many people have had the virus so far compared to how many have died.

~7% of the UK have had it so far. 4.5 million.

44k have died. That's 0.9% of those who have had it. So a smidgen over the mortality rate but not by much, it's pretty much bang on.

It's not anywhere near 0.04% in any case, as that would have resulted in about 2000 deaths so far.

Visage
18-10-2020, 20:34
Thats like me saying 'If we ignore all the games where Wolves failed to win, our points per game is brilliant'

Oswald
18-10-2020, 20:34
Its 0.05%, not 0.05, so 100x less.

But that's problematic because 33,000 deaths is less than we've actually had....And presumably nobody is suggesting that everyone in the UK has caught it....
https://i.imgur.com/Xf2SWn2.jpg

:thumbs::picard:

ChemicalKicks
18-10-2020, 23:22
Its 0.05%, not 0.05, so 100x less.

But that's problematic because 33,000 deaths is less than we've actually had....And presumably nobody is suggesting that everyone in the UK has caught it....

Soz I'm quite drunk, are you? You said 0.05? Multiple that by pop you get 3.3m? 66000000 x 0.05? Is my maths wrong?

The 0.05 I got from Stag

ChemicalKicks
18-10-2020, 23:29
https://i.imgur.com/Xf2SWn2.jpg

:thumbs::picard:

Seriously, are you one of these spastics that thinks this isn't real?

Honest question, Bakes, when you're in public, go in a shop are you wearing a mask?

Stagflation
19-10-2020, 10:05
Soz I'm quite drunk, are you? You said 0.05? Multiple that by pop you get 3.3m? 66000000 x 0.05? Is my maths wrong?

The 0.05 I got from Stag

Multiplying by 0.05 isn't correct, that's if you want 5%. You want to multiply by 0.0005. which as been mentioned is 33,000.

We may have had over that many deaths already, but many of them were old duffers on their last legs so weren't in the 0.05% group. Quite a proportion of who would have died of flu in a normal year but were spared the previous years as flu wasn't widespread. They have now sadly died but all this talk of a second wave is assuming there's another cohort of duffers near the edge. The case rate may spike to where it was, but the death rate won't be anything like it was.

Stagflation
19-10-2020, 10:12
CPmWYFlUK54

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 11:08
Multiplying by 0.05 isn't correct, that's if you want 5%. You want to multiply by 0.0005. which as been mentioned is 33,000.

We may have had over that many deaths already, but many of them were old duffers on their last legs so weren't in the 0.05% group. Quite a proportion of who would have died of flu in a normal year but were spared the previous years as flu wasn't widespread. They have now sadly died but all this talk of a second wave is assuming there's another cohort of duffers near the edge. The case rate may spike to where it was, but the death rate won't be anything like it was.

God I'm terrible at maths lol thank you for explaining my failing haha

Malcolm Tucker
19-10-2020, 11:20
The case rate may spike to where it was, but the death rate won't be anything like it was.

I dunno, that's an assumption, quite a big one if I'm honest, at its peak we were seeing a thousand deaths per day and, what are our best estimates, about 100k a day in cases.

Cases are back to a confirmed 15-20k a day and deaths are around 100-150 a day which gives you a bit of a baseline to work from. This is the current population we're now working from, no more of those old duffers you say skewed our deaths to account for.

So if cases return to their peak of 100k (4-5x increase) then deaths could be as high as 750 a day again. Not quite as bad as the first peak, maybe as you say it's killed off some of the most desperately ill in care homes, but to assert "deaths won't be anything like it was" seems more based on wishful thinking than anything else. I think we should be realistic, winter is going to be grim.

Moses
19-10-2020, 13:17
It's not just the mortality because there's the impact of 'long covid' we don't know enough about yet.

And also if you 'let it rip' amongst the 'healthy' population and a significant number of people start dying (even if it's a fairly small proportion) then you'll get behavioural changes which'll fuck the economy still... people will choose to live in semi-lockdown style life and loads of companies will stay as WFH etc.

Then the idea of shielding just the vulnerable doesn't work in practice for vast swathes of them... you need 'normal' people to staff care homes so they could introduce it into that kind of environment, loads of vulnerable people live with 'normal' people, loads of 'normal' people rely on vulnerable people for childcare etc with that free childcare essentially to vast swathes of the economy, etc etc.

Malcolm Tucker
19-10-2020, 13:47
Yeah, long covid is the other consideration. 10% of mild cases have some kind of complications, everything from losing your sense of smell and taste to heart damage.

So that's millions of people who will need long term NHS treatment.

You're right about behavioural as well, you'll spook the fuck out of people if the policy is to let rip, eventually healthy people will lose a friend, co-worker or loved one who was comfortably inside the 'safe' groups.

Imagine the morale and work ethic of an office if the 25 year old receptionist dies from it and the boss just says "Sorry but that's just the way it is, rest of you have to carry on, you almost certainly won't die from it. I'm aware that's what we told the person who died but well urm... yeah... back to work" :shifty:

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 13:55
Yeah I've told my boss I've no intention of stepping foot back in the office until it's completely safe to do so, given the ONE FUCKING DAY I GO IN TO GRAB SOME PAPERWORK I GET NOTIFIED IVE BEEN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH SOME CUNT THAT HAD IT. Got tested and I'm fine but still! And another thing I've only been the office like 3 times since March, how fucking unlucky do you have to be to come into contact with a CV case, anyway...... Boses are saying probably be next March before we have to think about going back.

Oswald
19-10-2020, 14:22
Seriously, are you one of these spastics that thinks this isn't real?

Honest question, Bakes, when you're in public, go in a shop are you wearing a mask?

I do not wear a mask and I deliberately go out of my way to show everyone how disgusted I am at any COVID propaganda signs

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 14:35
I do not wear a mask and I deliberately go out of my way to show everyone how disgusted I am at any COVID propaganda signs

:picard:

I know you're lying Pinokio lol

Malcolm Tucker
19-10-2020, 15:19
lol he just trolls, he's got a degree in electrical engineering or something

he's probably pro eu and everything tbh :hehe:

yourmum
19-10-2020, 15:36
Yeah I've told my boss I've every intention of sticking my cock in his orifice and completely lubing my cock to do so, given the ONE FUCKING DAY I GO IN TO GRAB SOME COCK I GET NOTIFIED IVE BEEN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH SOME CUNT THAT HAD AIDS. i Got tested and I'm HIV positive .And another thing, it's bad AIDS and I've only been inside his orifice like 3 times since March, how fucking unlucky do you have to be to come into contact with a HIV case, anyway...... Boses are saying probably be next March before we have to think about our cocks dropping off unless we die of ADIS first.

:shifty:

Oswald
19-10-2020, 15:49
:picard:

I know you're lying Pinokio lolim not lying, faggot
IM GETTING custom masks made with slogans on like

MAKE CASK ALE GREAT AGAIN
COVID IS A HOAX
MAKE COVID DEADLY AGAIN!

then i will wear one

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 16:17
lol he just trolls, he's got a degree in electrical engineering or something

he's probably pro eu and everything tbh :hehe:
I always have a lil laugh reading his posts, he puts out a really angry energy but I imagine he's very well adjusted and laughing to himself when he's typing his posts lol

im not lying, faggot
IM GETTING custom masks made with slogans on like

MAKE CASK ALE GREAT AGAIN
COVID IS A HOAX
MAKE COVID DEADLY AGAIN!

then i will wear one

:loool:

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 16:18
:shifty:

FFS MISQUOTE MAFIA STRIKES AGAIN

Frank Castle
19-10-2020, 16:52
I don’t wear a mask anywhere. I travel all over the country in my lorry and I’ve not worn one yet. If asked to I say I’m medically exempt

Surely I should be dead right guys ?

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 18:47
I don’t wear a mask anywhere. I travel all over the country in my lorry and I’ve not worn one yet. If asked to I say I’m medically exempt

Surely I should be dead right guys ?

You literally sit in a fucking rig 20 hours a day why would anyone give a fuck if you're not wearing a mask.

Anyway do you say w'a'ffle or w'o'ffle? I say waffle with an a but the Mrs says that's weird as fuck!

Also the masks aren't to protect you, it's to protect everyone else from you ya fucking spacker <3

Stagflation
19-10-2020, 19:10
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkEvPeAXcAgTiIn?format=png&name=small

Lot's of cases everywhere, comparatively few deaths compared to the first wave.

Oswald
19-10-2020, 19:30
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkEvPeAXcAgTiIn?format=png&name=small

Lot's of cases everywhere, comparatively few deaths compared to the first wave.

its because its literally a hoax :loool:

ChemicalKicks
19-10-2020, 19:50
I heard somewhere that as the virus cracks on longer it will become less deadly overtime

yourmum
20-10-2020, 10:11
I heard somewhere that as the virus cracks on longer it will become less deadly overtime

your aids will get worse as you have bad aids.

ChemicalKicks
20-10-2020, 10:27
your aids will get worse as you have bad aids.

Tell yourmum, I'm really sorry xx

Malcolm Tucker
20-10-2020, 10:31
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkEvPeAXcAgTiIn?format=png&name=small

Lot's of cases everywhere, comparatively few deaths compared to the first wave.

Like us, Netherlands only tested those with severe symptoms in hospital during the first wave, hence why cases tracked so closely with deaths.

Now community testing is happening they're seeing a lot more than before but still only 4.5k cases. If that chart could retrospectively include community testing in the first wave it would be off that scale, far higher than their second wave.

You need context to the data rather than blindly reposting graphs that visually support your idea at first glance.

Moses
20-10-2020, 10:39
Like us, Netherlands only tested those with severe symptoms in hospital during the first wave, hence why cases tracked so closely with deaths.

Now community testing is happening they're seeing a lot more than before but still only 4.5k cases. If that chart could retrospectively include community testing in the first wave it would be off that scale, far higher than their second wave.

You need context to the data rather than blindly reposting graphs that visually support your idea at first glance.

:loool:, Stag rekt agen.

yourmum
20-10-2020, 14:10
Tell yourmum, I'm really sorry xx

she gave it to you.................. and she said she is not sorry and that your dick is due to fall off anytime soon

ChemicalKicks
20-10-2020, 14:13
Oh god, she's fucking riddled. Oh well beats CV19.

Stagflation
20-10-2020, 16:09
You need context to the data rather than blindly reposting graphs that visually support your idea at first glance.

It's not just the Netherlands. The UK has seen a massive surge in cases but comparatively few deaths.

Even the Torygraph has caught on: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/20/second-wave-not-sight-ons-figures-show-deaths-just-15-per-cent/

Malcolm Tucker
20-10-2020, 16:17
Yes we also didn't test everyone in the first wave, only those presenting with severe symptoms at hospital. The first wave is massively under reported in terms of cases in quite a few countries. For us it "peaked" at 5000 cases per day, and 1000 a day in Holland but it was likely just a drop in the ocean of all the cases out there. Our best estimates put it at something like 100k a day at its peak. Therefore our current wave, despite what the graph shows for cases, is still only about 20% of the first.

It's wrong to therefore conclude based on all that missing first wave case data that we're having more cases this time around but fewer deaths so the virus must have weakened, we've achieved herd immunity etc etc. It's more likely that the ratio of case:death is simply unchanged and we simply have a much better idea of how many cases are actually in the UK this time.

Moses
20-10-2020, 17:31
Yes we also didn't test everyone in the first wave, only those presenting with severe symptoms at hospital. The first wave is massively under reported in terms of cases in quite a few countries. For us it "peaked" at 5000 cases per day, and 1000 a day in Holland but it was likely just a drop in the ocean of all the cases out there. Our best estimates put it at something like 100k a day at its peak. Therefore our current wave, despite what the graph shows for cases, is still only about 20% of the first.

It's wrong to therefore conclude based on all that missing first wave case data that we're having more cases this time around but fewer deaths so the virus must have weakened, we've achieved herd immunity etc etc. It's more likely that the ratio of case:death is simply unchanged and we simply have a much better idea of how many cases are actually in the UK this time.

:yes:

I had it early on - I THINK* - but at the time the guidance was to stay at home and only go to hospital if you couldn't breathe lols. There was no way to get tested outside of going to hospital because you thought you might die.

*statistically it is unlikely as the prevalence was low at the time, but I had the symptoms and was rather ill. Fairly confident I had it TBH.

Oswald
20-10-2020, 19:37
Big boomer john on youtube reckons 50x more people had it than reported in march, lulz

i mean we are talking about the flu here, killing old biddies who in many cases should have died anyway

ChemicalKicks
20-10-2020, 20:44
Oh he's so edgy, Bakez I think I love you lol

Moses
21-10-2020, 10:15
Big boomer john on youtube reckons 50x more people had it than reported in march, lulz

i mean we are talking about the flu here, killing old biddies who in many cases should have died anyway

Don't we have a reasonably good idea of the prevalence from fairly early on because of the ONS studies?

Frank Castle
21-10-2020, 11:07
Average age of covid deaths 82

Ave life expectancy 81

Covid saving lives since 2020 :feels:

Chuckles
21-10-2020, 22:30
ruh roh

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/21/brazilian-volunteer-in-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-trial-dies

Malcolm Tucker
27-10-2020, 10:08
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

double ruh roh

Oswald
27-10-2020, 15:33
Does anyone give a fuck anymore?
Like seriously, it’s over
Shut the forum down again m

Malcolm Tucker
27-10-2020, 15:57
not gonna shut it down when it looks like enoch has just joined

ChemicalKicks
27-10-2020, 16:21
not gonna shut it down when it looks like enoch has just joined

What's the account?

Also, I post 100x more here than Facebook or Reddit

ChemicalKicks
27-10-2020, 16:22
I love this forum, if you have a PayPal or something I'd happily chuck a 10 in for hosting

Malcolm Tucker
27-10-2020, 16:25
Unser führer Adolf Hitler :lmao:

Oswald
27-10-2020, 16:40
we are gonna need this forum more and more as COVID1984 gets more and more insane
being a COVID denier is quickly becoming like being a holocaust denier

the thing is when the real one comes along and it actually does kill people noone is gonna listen to any 'restrictions'

Frank Castle
27-10-2020, 17:15
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

double ruh roh

So if you’re antibodies Diminish and u can get covid again, THEN THIS MEANS VACCINES ARE ALSO USELESS U FUCKING RETARDS

so crack on with life

I was correct again

Malcolm Tucker
27-10-2020, 17:41
Dunno, like we said back in July, it might mean the vaccine is not a one off, could be a kind of booster jab you get every so often maybe every 6 months, or even every 3 months if you're clinically vulnerable

Oswald
27-10-2020, 17:53
So if you’re antibodies Diminish and u can get covid again, THEN THIS MEANS VACCINES ARE ALSO USELESS U FUCKING RETARDS

so crack on with life

I was correct againthats why the vaccine will be once every year/6 months, FOREVER
new strains will be identified etc, and if they dont they will just keep using tests with 95% accuracy, meaning covid will be here, FOREVER

you wont be allowed outside unless your vaccine is up to date, you will be barred from travelling, working etc unless you have your COVID-pass :loool:
you will log in each day on your smart phone to see your positive/negative

if this scamdemic happened even 10 years ago, the mass testing bullshit wouldnt even be possible

imagine a boot stamping on a human face, FOREVER, thats the future for the west
meanwhile random 3rd worlders can arrive in dingies and hijack oil tankers and walk right in :thumbs:

Oswald
27-10-2020, 17:54
Dunno, like we said back in July, it might mean the vaccine is not a one off, could be a kind of booster jab you get every so often maybe every 6 months, or even every 3 months if you're clinically vulnerableur trolling now, i can see it

not even covidtart craig can be this gullable, every 3 months ffs :loool:

I SHOULDNT LAUGH THOUGH COS ITS ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN

ChemicalKicks
27-10-2020, 18:12
So if you’re antibodies Diminish and u can get covid again, THEN THIS MEANS VACCINES ARE ALSO USELESS U FUCKING RETARDS

so crack on with life

I was correct again

It really depends on what your vaccinating against and the rate at which it mutates, flu is updated yearly FFS and no one says it's ineffective

Malcolm Tucker
27-10-2020, 18:12
https://i.redd.it/be2jntubyo521.jpg

ChemicalKicks
27-10-2020, 18:20
Haha covtards acting like mongs

Frank Castle
27-10-2020, 23:29
It really depends on what your vaccinating against and the rate at which it mutates, flu is updated yearly FFS and no one says it's ineffective

The flu vaccine is only 67% effective

Which is shit

Malcolm Tucker
27-10-2020, 23:44
Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without.

Visage
28-10-2020, 00:17
67 percent reduction in an exponential growth rate is huge.

ChemicalKicks
28-10-2020, 00:36
The flu vaccine is only 67% effective

Which is shit

Stop being a spaz, I know you're not! I know you're pretending

Oswald
28-10-2020, 03:01
did u cunts not realise that when they announced this bullshit 3 tier system, that when they numbers it 1 2 3, instead of 3 2 1, it was so they had room to increas the level of lockdown

AND NOW SCOTLAND HAVE A 5 TIER SYSTEM LOL
its so fucking obvious

trust me 100%, tier 4 will be released in england soon

ChemicalKicks
28-10-2020, 10:12
Dude you ain't even effected by it

Frank Castle
28-10-2020, 11:49
No one is, well no more than a bad flu virus as that what’s is become now

Malcolm Tucker
28-10-2020, 12:18
So Trump is a pussy then.

Frank Castle
29-10-2020, 06:32
NO U ARE

Frank Castle
29-10-2020, 06:32
U bottled that race in 2009 tbf

Oswald
29-10-2020, 15:12
EVERYONE who dies and gets a positive test, dies of covid, and they test u after u died as well
EVERYONE who is in hospital, and has a positive test, is a COVID patient
got hit by a bus? COVID patient
die falling off a roof? COVID death

yourmum
30-10-2020, 00:17
EVERYONE who dies and gets a positive test, dies of covid, and they test u after u died as well
EVERYONE who is in hospital, and has a positive test, is a COVID patient
got hit by a bus? COVID patient
die falling off a roof? COVID death

hopefully all of the above happen to you soon, and then I will find your grave and piss and shit on it.

Stagflation
30-10-2020, 07:39
Even if he gets Covid his chance of dieing from it is practically zero, as it is is for pretty much everyone who posts here.

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 09:06
Only 350 dubious covid deaths for people below 60 in the Uk since day one

:loool:

Stagflation
30-10-2020, 09:14
I wouldn't get too cocky though Luke, being metabolicly unfit is a major risk factor in Covid complications. :shifty:

Chuckles
30-10-2020, 10:48
Even if he gets Covid his chance of dieing from it is practically zero, as it is is for pretty much everyone who posts here.

RIP Major
RIP DMpoole

Malcolm Tucker
30-10-2020, 10:52
Stag unless playing CS:Go helps you build up immunity to viruses I wouldn't count your chickens just yet

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 11:01
There was a 17yo kid died over here because of CV19 :/

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 11:56
I wouldn't get too cocky though Luke, being metabolicly unfit is a major risk factor in Covid complications. :shifty:

Completed it mayte

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 11:58
There was a 17yo kid died over here because of CV19 :/

OH NO, A TERRIBLE ANECDOTE, AND ONE THAT WILL, MAKE ME CHANGE MY MIND, 1 PERSON OUT OF 100 MILLION HAS DIED

Malcolm Tucker
30-10-2020, 12:05
Completed it mayte

You haven't had it.

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 12:16
You haven't had it.

I have.

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 12:16
I actually had/have long covid. Deal with it

iam
30-10-2020, 12:19
You'd be dead

Malcolm Tucker
30-10-2020, 12:20
You're doing what a lot of people have done, had a chest infection/bad cold last year and then decided it was covid without any clinical test.

If you'd have had 'something' in March/April then it stands a better chance but Nov/Dec it was still brewing in backwater China, it wasn't circulating in Staffordshire pubs.

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 12:29
You’re wrong you fucking idiots

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 12:32
I have flu and chest infections every year due to my asthma etc

November I had something unlike anything I’ve ever had. I had to give up vaping from that point, only just been able to start vaping again last month. I had shadows on my lungs for 3 months, 3 xrays, doctors didn’t know what it was. Chest pains until April. That was covid.

Malcolm Tucker
30-10-2020, 12:54
sounds like a nasty virus after all then

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 13:15
OH NO, A TERRIBLE ANECDOTE, AND ONE THAT WILL, MAKE ME CHANGE MY MIND, 1 PERSON OUT OF 100 MILLION HAS DIED

It's not an anecdote, poor kid died, 17. I don't doubt that statistically dying so young from it is unlikely but fucking hell how bad can it be when you've got young people dying from it too.

If every mother fucker could just wear a mask social distance and stick to essential travel and we can help reduce the spread I'm for it. I don't understand the selfish attitude displayed by a large % of the pop. Even more worrying is the science denying conspiracy theorist segment of the pop that thinks everyone is out to 'trick' them for some elaborate conspiracy.

SAD

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 13:16
sounds like a nasty virus after all then

Nah it's nothing to worry about. :nag:

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 19:15
Lol ur literally thick as fuck, the pair of you. Incapable of critical thinking, unable to see the statistics for what they are

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 20:32
OMG I HATE YOU <3 lol

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 20:36
Ur actually gay tho and ur bad aids is causing your cognitive dissonance

Frank Castle
30-10-2020, 20:39
The funny thing is I was right about brexit, i was right about covid and I’ve had it and survived, and maga 2020 will be the next ownage that u spastic SJW cocks will just have to absorb. No doubt you’ll be spacking and foaming as ever :rofl:

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 21:33
What were you right about Brexit and Covid? Are you gay Luke, have you used women to cover it up. I remember you were always obsessed with anal, you can come out to us, no one will judge you. You've got to stop judging yourself.

Also you're a BALD MILDLE AGED FAT RETARDED MONG :)

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 21:34
I've got fat too tho :/

ChemicalKicks
30-10-2020, 21:35
Seriously though I think it's all the MAGA twats that are gonna spack out when he loses, I can't wait to see the fallout.

Frank Castle
31-10-2020, 01:12
I love a self fulfilling prophecy

ChemicalKicks
31-10-2020, 01:15
How many days now?

Stagflation
31-10-2020, 09:33
Covid-19 rates are not surging, reveals King's College research

Covid-19 rates are not surging, researchers at King's College have said after results from its symptom tracker app showed a far less deadly virus trajectory than Imperial College findings.

Earlier in the week, Imperial released interim data from its React-1 study which showed there are now nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day in England, with nearly one million people infected. The Imperial team said rates were doubling every nine days and it was a critical time for lowering the 'R' rate.

However, King's College – which has been monitoring the symptoms and test results of millions of people through its app – said it was not seeing such alarming numbers. The app found 43,569 daily new symptomatic cases on average, and calculated that doubling was happening every 28 days.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College, said: "While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys. We are still seeing a steady rise nationally, doubling every four weeks – with the possible exception of Scotland, which may be showing signs of a slowdown.

"With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey. We can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths without putting them into context. Hospital admissions are rising as expected, but deaths are still average for the season."

Interadasting ;)