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Old 08-01-2016, 14:15   #1
Malcolm Tucker
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Default The road to recovery

May be about to hit a big fucking pothole.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35261373

Quote:
The proportion of household debt is at its highest for five years, according to an analysis by the TUC.

On average, UK homes owed 26.5% of their annual income on loans and credit cards in the third quarter of 2015, the highest rate since 2008.
The figures - based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - include student loans, but exclude mortgages.

The average amount owed by households is now 11,800, the highest level yet.
However, debt was proportionately greater in 2008, when it reached more than 30% of household income.

"If people start building up household debt, then at some point they're going to get in trouble," said Frances O'Grady, the TUC's general secretary.
So, as many have said, the recovery so far fuelled by debt, based on people physiologically believing the economy was 'back on track' - at some point this year, maybe when rates rise, people will take a second look at how much they're spending and decide to stop and save instead, and that's it, the "recovery" grinds to a screeching halt.

So domestically we're probably in pretty poor shape, and after months of grumblings we pretty much have the official warning lights now flashing. Osborne's response? Get in early and set the narrative to blame China (Britain isn't even that exposed to chinese shares) and the oil price as to why Britain's house of cards is about to fall.

Even if it were true, it means it's suddenly ok to blame our financial situation on external forces, but all through 2008-2015 it wasn't?

In any case ...
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Old 08-01-2016, 14:22   #2
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You can't cut your way out of recession, basically.
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Old 08-01-2016, 14:24   #3
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If it weren't for the low oil price things would be worse in the UK, I would have thought.

Osborne is both incompetent and a proven liar anyway.
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Old 08-01-2016, 15:54   #4
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Originally Posted by Visage View Post
You can't cut your way out of recession, basically.
Unless I'm mistaken, we're not cutting... See HS2, cross rail etc...
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Old 08-01-2016, 15:58   #5
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Old 08-01-2016, 15:58   #6
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As I've said before, GDP is a meaningless metric by which to judge success or failure. If I am correct then whether an economy is in growth or recession is also meaningless.
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Old 08-01-2016, 16:03   #7
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Don't worry guys we can fall back onto the benefit system if all fails
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Old 08-01-2016, 18:34   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malcolm Tucker View Post
1. GDP is going up

2. While certain services may face funding cuts, we've seen infrastructure investment and tax breaks for companies...
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Old 08-01-2016, 19:17   #9
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Well thats why I picked the 'as a % of GDP' graph because it shows that despite GDP growth public spending is falling, the government is spending, borrowing and taxing less. We can argue about the strengths and weaknesses of each (why arent we taxing more if deficit reduction is so paramount) but its difficult to see how public spending isn't falling in real terms since Osborne started his plan.

If you single out certain areas such as pensions and foreign aid its an increase but then if you look at areas like welfare and policing its a fall. All together it averages out as a fall.

HS2 is interesting as a long term investment but it depends what revenue the government will derive. Economic efficiencies in moving workers around? Direct ticket sales, or will it sold off to private buyers? I WONDER

In any case, HS2 doesn't counter or validate Osbornomics because even if its fiscal multiplier is good we won't see it for decades, public services and the NHS cannot wait decades for money that may not even arrive. Investing in infrastructure with a much shorter lead time would be better but so many pre-election powerhouse plans have already been axed I wonder if any will see the light of day.
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Old 08-01-2016, 19:24   #10
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Quote:
On average, UK homes owed 26.5% of their annual income on loans and credit cards in the third quarter of 2015
More debt = more growth, get those hamsters back on their wheels.
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